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project utilizes both qualitative and quantitative research methods
to achieve its stated objectives. These methods are described below
along with approaches to socio-economic modeling.
Qualitative
Methodology
Stakeholder expectations and concerns are elicited
and documented using participatory appraisals (PAs). The PAs, which
incorporate an array of flexible interviewing techniques, are conducted
on representatives from the following sets of stakeholders: producers,
consumers, input suppliers, agricultural/biological scientists,
private investors in biotechnology, environmentalists, and federal/state
regulators. Interviews are held in both individual and group settings.
One advantage of the PA is that it allows for in-depth probing into
critical issues, to promote a deep understanding of respondent perceptions
and concerns. Moreover, the PAs may serve to identify other important
individuals and groups for interviewing. The participatory appraisals
are the first information gathering technique used in the project;
data from the PAs may help to frame questions for subsequent research.
Farm-level components of the PAs take place in Virginia, North Carolina,
and Tennessee for tobacco; Arkansas, California, the Philippines,
and Bangladesh for rice.
Quantitative
Methodology
Stakeholder Perception Surveys
Quantitative surveys buttress the qualitative data and allow for
the analysis of emergent patterns with respect to who holds particular
opinions, which stakeholders (or subgroups) are likely to adopt
the technologies investigated in this project, and projected time-frames
for adoption. Particular attention is given to identifying differences
by gender, as men and women often have different outlooks on issues
related to technologies and the environment. Statistical models
are used to assess the factors influencing opinions regarding biotechnologies
and to gauge the propensities toward adopting such methods. The
surveys target stakeholders in the U.S. and in Asia.
Economic and Social Impact Models
Impact assessment focuses on quantifying positive and negative
effects of agricultural biotechnologies. Comparisons between genetic
engineering biotechnologies and conventional biotechnologies are
made in assessing the level and distribution of benefits and costs.
The distribution of benefits, at home and abroad, are analyzed in
economic surplus models that consider benefits accruing to private,
imperfectly competitive input suppliers as well as to consumers
and primary producers in different locations.
Benefits from biotechnologies incorporated into the models are
of several types including unit cost reductions in production, improved
crop yields, improved human health, creation of new products, and
decreased environmental stress resulting from reduced pesticide
applications. Most of these benefits are likely to have distinct
distributional patterns to producers and consumers with differential
effects based on varying farm sizes, income levels, gender, race,
location, and stage in the marketing chain.
There are also multiple real and potential costs associated with
biotechnology that are included in the impact models. Such costs
include biotech research expenditures themselves. Additional cost
components are potential risks to human health due to allergens
in the new products, toxicity, or antibiotic resistance; environmental
risks as a result of impacts on non-target organisms, or the spread
of genes from a genetically-modified organisms to weeds or other
crops; and production, marketing, and income risks to growers -
for tobacco, risks that have traditionally been mitigated by the
federal tobacco program.
A conceptual framework is constructed that fully demonstrates the
various benefits and costs associated with agricultural biotechnologies.
However, given differences in the magnitude of benefits and costs
of rice and tobacco technologies, procedures for quantification
of benefits and costs differ by crop. Additionally, our stakeholder
perception surveys should supplement the development of our conceptual
framework.
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